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Peruvians head to the polls on Sunday in a crowded and unpredictable presidential election, with crime-weary voters set to choose their ninth leader in a decade, in a context of deep frustration over corruption and rising violence. Producer, writer and journalist for Radio Programas del Perú, Martin Riepel, shares further insights on this vote.
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Peruvians head to the polls on Sunday in a crowded and unpredictable presidential election, with crime-weary voters set to choose their ninth leader in a decade, in a context of deep frustration over corruption and rising violence. Producer, writer and journalist for Radio Programas del Perú, Martin Riepel, shares further insights on this vote.
In the campaign, Orbán – the EU’s longest-serving leader – has trailed in the polls as he faces an unprecedented challenge from Péter Magyar, a former elite member of Orbán’s Fidesz party.
The challenge to Orbán’s power has sent rightwing leaders from across the globe scrambling to rally behind him. This week, JD Vance turned up in Budapest for a two-day visit, the US vice-president telling reporters that his aim was to “help” Orbán win.
The US president, Donald Trump, has also repeatedly endorsed Orbán, most recently on Friday, when he vowed on social media that he would bring US “economic might” to the country if Orbán is re-elected. Months earlier, leaders including Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu also made it clear that they were backing Orbán.
The result is an election that has played out on both the global and domestic stage, as Orbán argued that the country’s biggest threat is the war in Ukraine and he alone is capable of keeping the peace, while Magyar focused on domestic issues, with pledges to crack down on corruption, repair the strained relationship with the EU and funnel funds to the country’s crumbling public services.
After Magyar and his centre-right Tisza party crisscrossed the country, holding as many as six rallies a day, most polls have put his party in the lead. Analysts have expressed caution, however, as undecided voters and Hungarians abroad could still sway the result, as could alleged vote-buying.
For many in Hungary, Sunday’s vote will also be a test of how deeply Orbán’s political system is embedded, after the rightwing populist leader spent more than a decade working to transform Hungary into a “petri dish for illiberalism”: rewriting election laws to his party’s benefit, manoeuvring to put loyalists in control of an estimated 80% of the country’s media and clamping down on dissenting voices.
The result will be closely watched by the Maga movement and the global far right, many of whom have long cited Orbán as an inspiration and sought to follow his playbook.
Questions have also swirled over Orbán’s government and its relationship to Moscow amid allegations of Russian interference in the ballot, as well as audio that appeared to suggest a minister had shared confidential EU information with the Russian government.
Orbán’s government has cited the leaks – including a transcript in which Orbán reportedly told the Russian pesident, Vladimir Putin, “I am at your service” – as evidence of foreign interference.
At a Friday night rally for Orbán in Székesfehérvár, a city of about 100,000 people in central Hungary, hundreds of people turned up, eagerly waving flags and cheering as cameras panned over the city where the first kings of Hungary were crowned and buried. “I’m so happy to be here,” gushed Cecília, 78. “He’s the best leader in the world.”
Sunday was set to be the fifth time since 2010 that she had voted for Orbán “Viktor Orbán will win, of course, with a supermajority,” she said.
Others were more circumspect. “When it comes to polls, it depends on who does them, but the situation does seem tense. I’m worried for him,” said Sándor, 69. “He seems tired.”
Scattered among the crowd were also a handful of Magyar supporters. “I was curious to hear the prime minister speak,” said Richárd, 27.
What he had heard, he said, hinted at a fundamental difference between the two leading parties. “For 16 years, Fidesz has been campaigning on hatred and fear,” he said. “While Tisza has been trying to express hope at all of their events.”
About 27 million people who are eligible to vote must choose between a record 35 presidential candidates as well as contenders for the bicameral congress – all from a ballot sheet measuring nearly half a metre, the longest in the country’s history.
The fight against crime tops voter concerns amid record homicide and extortion rates but political corruption comes a close second. Four former presidents are in jail, most of them linked to bribery cases involving the Brazilian construction company Odebrecht.
Keiko Fujimori, a three-time presidential candidate and the daughter of the late president Alberto Fujimori, holds a narrow lead in opinion polls. She is closely followed by the comedian Carlos Álvarez and two former mayors of Lima, the ultra-conservative Rafael López Aliaga and the media mogul Ricardo Belmont.
Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the late president Alberto Fujimori, holds a narrow lead in the opinion polls. Photograph: Renato Pajuelo/EPA
None of the candidates is polling above 15%, making a runoff on 7 June almost certain, according to Urpi Torrado, of the polling company Datum Internacional.
“This is one of the most unpredictable elections on record,” said Torrado. “There could be surprises this Sunday because we don’t know who will make it through to the second round.”
Fujimori, 50, is making her fourth bid for the presidency, having reached the runoff in the last three elections (2021, 2016 and 2011) and losing by extremely narrow margins each time. The rightwinger served as first lady in the autocratic 1990s government of her late father, who was convicted over corruption and human rights abuses and spent 16 years in prison.
Ricardo Belmont, who was Lima’s mayor from 1990 to 1995, has risen in most opinion polls, winning the younger vote with his upbeat messaging and the slogan “hugs not bullets”, borrowed from the former Mexican leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Gonzalo Banda, a Peruvian political analyst and doctoral researcher at University College of London’s Institute of the Americas, called Belmont an “anti-establishment candidate catching votes from the right, the left and the centre”. The 80-year-old is also known for making xenophobic and sexist remarks.
A band plays in support of Jorge Nieto, a former Peruvian defence minister, at a rally in Lima on Thursday. Photograph: Sebastián Blanco/EPA
López Aliaga, who was Lima’s mayor until a few months ago, has run a hard-right campaign littered with disinformation, hate speech and threats against journalists and opponents. But the 65-year-old rail magnate, who has opposed same-sex marriage and pledged to refuse abortion to underage rape victims, has slipped in the polls.
The surprise entry is Álvarez, one of Peru’s best-known comedians, who has been imitating presidents for the last three decades. However, his proposals are far from lighthearted. He describes himself as an admirer of Donald Trump and El Salvador’s leader, Nayib Bukele, and his tough-on-crime campaign has focused on megaprisons and the death penalty.
“It is ironically poetic that due to this cycle of [political] decay in Peru, we could end up with a comedy performer who imitates politicians as president,” said Banda.
Other candidates include Roberto Sánchez, who has been endorsed by the ousted former populist leader Pedro Castillo and wears the same style of wide-brimmed sombrero. Centrist candidates include a former defence minister, Jorge Nieto, and a former university rector, Alfonso López Chau.
Torrado said: “No political leader has emerged who can generate a sense of hope, a feeling that this person could change the country’s political course or solve its problems. Peruvians feel that in recent years, politicians have turned their backs on the people.”
