Breaking News: Strong El Niño Development Expected
Forecasters are monitoring the formation of El Niño in the tropical Pacific, focusing on the Niño3.4 region. This area tracks the three-month average of sea surface temperatures compared to long-term averages.
A strong or “super El Niño” occurs when temperatures exceed 1.5°C. Recent predictions from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), NOAA, and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) indicate a significant rise in temperatures.
The latest ECMWF forecast shows that over half of its models predict temperatures above 2.5°C by autumn. Such a rise would be classified as a “historically strong event.” BoM also supports the likelihood of a very strong El Niño developing later this year.
Some data even suggests temperatures could exceed 3°C, surpassing the previous peak of 2.7°C recorded in 1877. However, that era had limited observations, creating uncertainty around temperature accuracy.
The last “very strong” El Niño occurred in 2015-2016, with a Niño3.4 temperature of 2.4°C. This event had significant global impacts, including severe droughts and flooding.
