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US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the United States has had a decisive military victory over Iran and that Tehran’s missile program has been functionally destroyed. But is this claim true? Have Iran’s military capabilities been completely destroyed? And even if the US has achieved a military victory, has it achieved a strategic one? France 24’s Kethevan Gorjestani takes a look.
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US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the United States has had a decisive military victory over Iran and that Tehran’s missile program has been functionally destroyed. But is this claim true? Have Iran’s military capabilities been completely destroyed? And even if the US has achieved a military victory, has it achieved a strategic one? France 24’s Kethevan Gorjestani takes a look.
The United States and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire Wednesday as US President Donald Trump pulled back from his threats to destroy Iranian “civilisation”.
But questions emerged over what appeared to be duelling proposals to halt the regionwide war and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, with Iran insisting it would charge tolls to passing ships and continue to enrich uranium.
Trump then suggested American warships would be “hangin’ around” the waterway, through which 20 percent of all oil and natural gas passes in peacetime. That could be a potential flashpoint as the days goes on.
Trump initially said had Iran proposed a “workable” 10-point plan that could help end the war he launched with Israel on February 28. But he later called the plan fraudulent without elaborating. Trump has said ending Iran’s nuclear program was a key war goal.
Israel backed the US ceasefire with Iran, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday it won’t stop his country’s fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which continued through the morning.
US-Iran ceasefire ‘a major problem domestically’ for Netanyahu
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That contradicted comments from Pakistan, a key mediator, which said the ceasefire included the fighting in Lebanon.
Pakistan said that talks over cementing a peace plan would begin in Islamabad as soon as Friday. Pakistan also said the ceasefire was to begin immediately, while Iran launched attacks on Gulf Arab states and Israel soon after.
Oil prices fell and stocks rose as Asian markets opened Wednesday after the eleventh-hour agreement to reopen the strait.
In the streets of Tehran, pro-government demonstrators screamed: “Death to America, death to Israel, death to compromisers!” after the ceasefire announcement and burned American and Israeli flags. It shows the ongoing anger from hard-liners, who had been preparing for what many assumed would be an apocalyptical battle with the United States.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said passage through the strait would be allowed under Iranian military management. It wasn’t clear whether that meant Iran would completely loosen its chokehold on the waterway.
Iran views ceasefire as ‘victory against the United States and Israel’
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The plan allows for both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the strait, according to a regional official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss negotiations they were directly involved in. The official said Iran would use the money it raised for reconstruction.
But that would upend decades of reliance on the strait as an international waterway free for transit and will likely not be acceptable to the Gulf Arab states, which also need to rebuild after repeated Iranian attacks targeting their oil fields.
“Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process,” Trump said on social media.
It’s not clear what happens when the two weeks of the ceasefire ends.
There’s little public sign that Iran and the United States had resolved disagreements over the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missiles or its regional proxies – among the issues that the United States and Israel cited as justifications for launching the war.
In addition to control of the strait, Iran’s demands for ending the war include withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, the lifting of sanctions and the release of its frozen assets.
All those likely are nonstarters for Trump and potentially other Western nations. Iran’s chokehold on the strait roiled the world economy and raised the pressure on Trump to reach a deal.
Since the war began, Trump has repeatedly backed off deadlines just before they expire. In doing so again Tuesday, Trump said in a social media post he had come to the decision “based on conversations” with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Gen. Asim Munir, Pakistan’s powerful army chief.
There are concerns in Israel about the agreement, according to a person familiar with the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to speak to the media. The person said Israel would like to achieve more.
Missile alerts were issued in the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait after the ceasefire announcement. A gas processing facility in Abu Dhabi was ablaze after incoming Iranian fire, officials said.
Earlier Tuesday the Israeli military said it attacked an Iranian petrochemical site in Shiraz, the second day in a row it hit such a facility. The military later said it struck bridges used by Iranian forces to transport weapons and military equipment.
More than 1,900 people had been killed in Iran as of late March, but the government has not updated the war’s toll for days.
In Lebanon, where Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants, more than 1,500 people have been killed. and 1 million people have been displaced. Eleven Israeli soldiers have died.
In Gulf Arab states and the occupied West Bank, more than two dozen people have died, while 23 have been reported dead in Israel, and 13 U.S. service members have been killed.
After spending his first day in Budapest excoriating the EU and accusing it of being behind one of the “worst examples” of foreign interference, the US vice-president spent part of Wednesday morning speaking at a thinktank and educational institution linked to Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orbán.
With four days to go until Hungarians cast their ballots – and with Orbán trailing the opposition in most polls – Vance acknowledged the singular nature of his visit.
“It’s unprecedented for an American vice-president to come the week before an election,” he said. But he said he had decided to come because of what he described as the “garbage happening against” Orbán in the election. “We had to show that there are actually lots of friends across the world who recognise that Viktor and his government are doing a good job and they’re important partners for peace,” he said.
Vance insisted, however, that his efforts to bolster the lagging campaign of the rightwing, populist leader – whose “illiberal democracy” has long been seen as an inspiration for the Maga movement – did not constitute foreign interference. “I find it darkly ironic that people are accusing me of engaging in some kind of foreign influence,” he said.
On Wednesday, the German government shot back at Vance’s claims, rejecting the claim that the EU was interfering in Hungary’s election. The fact that Vance was in Hungary “already shows, or speaks for itself, who is interfering in what”, said a government spokesperson.
While the EU was reluctant to discuss the matter, a spokesperson said the bloc would use diplomatic channels to convey its concerns to Washington.
A supporter snaps a selfie with Péter Magyar, the leader of the Tisza party, which is leading the polls. Photograph: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg/Getty Images
One day earlier, as Vance and his wife, Usha, landed in the capital, Péter Magyar, the leading opposition candidate, issued a pointed statement. “No foreign country may interfere in Hungarian elections,” he said. “This is our country. Hungarian history is not written in Washington, Moscow or Brussels – it is written in Hungary’s streets and squares.”
Magyar, a former member of the Fidesz party’s inner circle, burst into public view two years ago after he broke ranks to accuse Orbán’s party of rampant corruption. The claims snowballed into a campaign that has steadily swelled, transforming the election into one of the most consequential of recent times, as it galvanised voters’ frustration over issues such as deteriorating public services, soaring housing prices and economic stagnation.
The result has been a deeply polarising campaign in which Orbán and Fidesz have sought to argue that the EU and Ukraine represent the gravest threats to Hungary, portraying the election as a stark choice between war and peace, while Magyar has focused on domestic issues.
On Wednesday, a projection from the polling agency Median suggested that Tisza could win a two-thirds majority in the country’s 199-seat parliament. While accusations of vote-buying and gerrymandering make the outcome of the election incredibly difficult to predict, a Tisza supermajority would give the party enough power to amend the constitution and key laws, meaning they could unlock EU funds.
As Vance waded into the Hungarian election, he appeared to have been drawn into Orbán’s strategy. The US vice-president laid the blame for Hungary’s ills on the EU, even as research showed the country had received more in EU funding than any other major post-communist EU country, both as a share of GDP and per capita, and that Orbán’s time in power had correlated with the country becoming the most corrupt in the EU.
Vance also took aim at Volodymyr Zelenskyy, describing comments by the Ukrainian leader as “completely scandalous”, and accused Kyiv of using energy supplies to influence Hungary. It was a reference to controversial comments Zelenskyy made after Orbán vetoed further EU sanctions on Russia, as well as an additional €90bn loan for Ukraine. The Ukrainian leader was prompted to say he could give the address of whoever was responsible to the Ukrainian army. The comment reportedly led European allies to ask Zelenskyy to tone down his rhetoric.
Vance said he was “disappointed” by Europe’s political leadership as it appeared to him that they were not “particularly interested” in solving the conflict. He contrasted that with Orbán – who has broken with most EU countries by refusing to help Ukraine financially or with weapons – and who, he said, had been “the one who encouraged us to truly understand” the perspective of both the Ukrainians and Russians.
JD Vance appeared to imply that the resolution to the Russian invasion of Ukraine hinged on Kyiv making territorial concessions. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
The US vice-president made no mention of the series of recent scandals that had laid bare the extent of Russia’s influence over Orbán’s government, from allegations that Russian intelligence agencies and disinformation networks linked to Moscow were working to sway the election in his favour, to the October call in which Orbán reportedly told Vladimir Putin: “I am at your service.”
After Hungary’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, was accused of regularly sharing the details of confidential EU meetings with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, leaked audio appeared to capture Szijjártó telling Lavrov that he would work to amend the EU sanctions list to Russia’s liking.
On Wednesday there were more revelations, as Szijjártó appeared to offer to send Lavrov a document about Ukraine’s EU accession, in leaked recordings obtained by a consortium of investigative reporters.
“I will send it to you. It’s not a problem,” Szijjártó reportedly said, after Lavrov said that Moscow was trying to get a document about the role of minority languages in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
The revelations were published hours after Vance appeared to imply that the resolution to the Russian invasion of Ukraine hinged on Kyiv making territorial concessions. “We’re talking about haggling at this point over a few square kilometres of territory in one direction or another,” he said.
As Vance landed in Budapest to rally behind Orbán, Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee in the US, pointed to what Vance had failed to mention about the relationship between Hungary and Russia. A report last month showed that Hungary’s reliance on Russia had increased since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Russia now accounting for 93% of the country’s crude oil imports compared with 61% in 2021.
This reliance had led to broad consequences for the war in Ukraine, said Shaheen. “Orbán has repeatedly hampered Europe’s ability to defend against Russian aggression while providing billions in energy payments to boost Putin’s war chest.”
